SPORTS BETTING MATH APPLIED PROBABILITY INSTITUTE
INDEPENDENT MATHEMATICAL RESEARCH

Sports Betting
Math

Motor de Odds Justas e Suíte de Calculadoras +EV

Decomponha as margens das casas de apostas com modelos probabilísticos rigorosos, remoção de overround multiplicativo e matrizes de Poisson. Identifique valor esperado positivo (+EV) e proteja o crescimento da sua banca com precisão matemática.

Calcular Odds Justas Ler Pesquisas
1 Understand the Math
2 Use the Tools
3 Find +EV Edges

EMPIRICAL PROOF // VIG STRIPPING

How Bookmakers Hide Their Overround

Compare retail odds with true fair probability. When both sides are priced at 1.91 (-110), the true fair odds are 2.00 (+100) and the bookmaker extracts 4.71% vig on every wager.

Retail Bookmaker Line VIG: 4.71%
Side A (Implied: 52.36%) 1.91 (-110)
Side B (Implied: 52.36%) 1.91 (-110)
Total bookmaker book: 104.71% — an insurmountable hurdle for recreational bettors.
Multiplicative De-Vig
P_fair = P_implied / 1.0471
Zero-Vig Fair Odds FAIR: 100.00%
True Probability Side A 2.00 (50.00%)
True Probability Side B 2.00 (50.00%)
De-vigged baseline reveals pure event probability for identifying +EV wagers.
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RESEARCH ARCHITECTURE

Pilares de Pesquisa

Explore as quatro disciplinas matemáticas fundamentais que definem a análise quantitativa esportiva, remoção de vig e cálculo de vantagem.

📐 PILAR 01 // ODDS JUSTAS E ANÁLISE DE MARGEM
PILLAR 1

Odds Justas Sem Vig e Decomposição do Overround

Métodos matemáticos para remover margens de casas de apostas: Multiplicativo, Aditivo, Power e método de Shin.

Core Formula: P_fair = (1 / O_i) / Σ(1 / O_k)
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📈 PILAR 02 // VALOR ESPERADO E IDENTIFICAÇÃO +EV
PILLAR 2

Fórmula do Valor Esperado e Por Que 98% dos Apostadores Perdem

Derivação formal da fórmula de EV e demonstração da inevitabilidade matemática de perdas ao apostar com margens superiores a 5%.

Core Formula: EV = (P × O) - 1
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🎯 PILAR 03 // CRITÉRIO DE KELLY E GESTÃO DE BANCA
PILLAR 3

Critério de Kelly: Full, Half e Quarter Kelly com Análise de Risco de Ruína

Dimensionamento ótimo de apostas baseado no artigo de Kelly (1956). Variantes fracionárias, proteção contra tilt e simulação de risco de ruína.

Core Formula: f* = (b·p - q) / b
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⚽ PILAR 04 // DISTRIBUIÇÃO DE POISSON E MODELAGEM
PILLAR 4

Motor de Expectativa de Gols Poisson: Probabilidades 1X2, Over/Under e Placar Exato

Modelagem de distribuição de Poisson para futebol e hóquei. Calcula probabilidades independentes de gols para 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 e placares exatos.

Core Formula: P(X=k) = (λ^k · e^-λ) / k!
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MATHEMATICAL AXIOMS

Three Immutable Laws of Sports Betting Markets

✓ 01 // The Vig Tax

Overround Compounds Inevitably

Betting into a standard 5% juice line requires a win-rate above 52.38% just to break even. Over 1,000 wagers, the expected loss to overround exceeds the entire initial bankroll.

✓ 02 // Kelly Sizing

Log-Wealth Maximization

Kelly's 1956 formula proves that bet sizing proportional to your edge guarantees maximum long-term geometric compounding while mathematically eliminating the risk of ruin.

✓ 03 // Closing Line Value

The Sharp Market Oracle

The final price before kickoff aggregates all available market information. Consistently beating the closing line is the only reliable predictor of long-term profitability.

TEST YOUR MATHEMATICAL EDGE

Calculate Your Edge on
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Apply de-vigged fair odds, Poisson goal expectations, and Kelly criterion stakes directly into live betting markets.

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