+EV Expected Value Calculator
Quantify betting edge and calculate expected monetary value per wager based on true probabilities and market odds.
Inputs
Result
EV Formula
P_win is your estimated true probability. (Odds - 1) is the potential profit for a 1 unit stake. (1 - P_win) is the probability of losing the 1 unit stake.
FAQ
What is Expected Value (+EV) in betting?
Expected Value is the mathematical edge a bettor has over the sportsbook. +EV means the bet is expected to be profitable in the long run.
How is EV calculated?
The formula is: EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake).
What is a good EV percentage?
Any positive EV percentage is mathematically profitable over the long term. Generally, an EV of 3% to 5% is considered strong in sports betting.
What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the conversion of sports betting odds into a percentage. It shows what the sportsbook thinks the chances are of an outcome happening.
Why is Closing Line Value (CLV) important?
CLV compares your bet's odds to the odds right before the event starts. Consistently beating the closing line is a strong indicator of a winning bettor.
Can I lose a +EV bet?
Yes. EV calculates the long-term expectation. Due to variance, you will still lose individual +EV bets, but you will profit over hundreds of bets.